Temperature threshold
Number of days per year with maximum temperatures above
How many hot days can we expect?
1
Presets
Yield loss
Livestock danger
2
Future projection
Select period and emission scenario
3
Select months
Choose which months to include in the analysis
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Number of days with maximum temperatures above 35°C — Jan to Dec
Historical (1981-2010)
Days above 35°C
0 50 100
Around 2050 (high emissions)
About this tool & data
Data source
Climate projections are based on 10 bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled CMIP6 global climate models provided by phase 3b of the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (see ISIMIP3b). The ensemble includes GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, UKESM1-0-LL, CanESM5, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, and MIROC6. Results are based on the ensemble median to provide a robust central estimate. The data were processed as part of the SAFE4ALL Africa project.
Methodology
Threshold exceedance days are calculated from daily maximum temperature data. Values represent the average number (or percentage) of days per month exceeding the selected threshold over each 30-year period. The median across all ensemble members is used to reduce individual model uncertainty.
Time periods and spatial resolution
The historical period (1981–2010) serves as the baseline reference. The periods 2036–2065 ("around 2050") and 2066–2095 ("around 2080") represent mid-term and long-term future projections. The data are provided at a spatial resolution of 0.5° (~50 km × 50 km at the equator).
Scenarios
Low emissions (SSP1-2.6) assumes rapid global action to limit warming, reaching net-zero emissions around 2050. High emissions (SSP5-8.5) represents continued growth in fossil fuel use with minimal climate policy.
Limitations
Climate projections are not predictions but plausible futures based on emission scenarios. Local conditions such as urban heat effects or elevation differences within a grid cell are not fully captured. Results should be interpreted as indicative of trends rather than exact values for specific locations.
References
Cucchi, M., Weedon, G. P., Amici, A., Bellouin, N., Lange, S., Müller Schmied, H., Hersbach, H., and Buontempo, C.: WFDE5: bias-adjusted ERA5 reanalysis data for impact studies, Earth System Science Data, 12, 2097–2120, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2097-2020, 2020
Frieler, K., Volkholz, J., Lange, S., et al.: Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a), Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024.
Lange, S.: ISIMIP3BASD v2.5.0, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4686991, 2021.
Lange, S. and Büchner, M.: ISIMIP3b bias-adjusted atmospheric climate input data (v1.1). ISIMIP Repository. 2021. https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.842396.1